BMI Tourism Report for Thailand (A 5 Year Forecast to 2028)
In 2025, Thailand's international tourist arrivals are projected to grow by 15.2% year-on-year, reaching 41.9 million, up from 36.3 million in 2024. This recovery surpasses the pre-pandemic levels of 39.9 million in 2019. By 2028, arrivals are expected to continue increasing, reaching 51.2 million, representing an average annual growth rate of 13.0%. This growth is supported by strategic initiatives such as the extension of visa-free stays for long-haul tourists from the US and Europe, aimed at encouraging longer stays and higher spending. Additionally, the mutual visa waiver agreement signed with Mainland China is expected to significantly boost arrivals from China, which remains Thailand's largest source market.
Thailand's international tourism receipts are forecasted to rise from USD 68.1 billion in 2024 to USD 73.9 billion in 2025, eventually reaching USD 86.8 billion by 2028. This represents an average annual growth of 8.5%. Notably, tourism receipts from transport services are expected to amount to USD 6.6 billion, while those from travel-related items will reach USD 80.2 billion. These figures underline the substantial economic impact of the tourism sector on Thailand's GDP and highlight the importance of strategic marketing and infrastructure investments to sustain growth.
The Asia-Pacific region will continue to be Thailand's largest source of international arrivals, accounting for 31.2 million visitors in 2025, followed by Europe with 6.4 million, and North America with 1.5 million. Collaborations with international partners, including Trip.com, and targeted campaigns like the 'Thailand – A Must for Chinese' initiative, are pivotal in attracting high-value tourists from these regions. Domestic tourism also plays a significant role in Thailand's tourism landscape. In 2025, domestic spending on hotels and restaurants is expected to reach THB 2.3 trillion, increasing to THB 2.7 trillion by 2028.
Thailand's hospitality industry is set for continued growth, with total overnight stays projected to rise from 407.3 million in 2023 to 470.5 million in 2025, and reaching 549.3 million by 2028. This growth trajectory is bolstered by the development of new tourism destinations such as Koh Chang and Chiang Rai, alongside investments in infrastructure and international rail networks. The hotel market is also expanding, with 35,990 hotels expected in 2025 and an increase to 39,890 by 2028.
Strategically, Thailand is focusing on sustainable and high-value tourism to ensure long-term market security. The TAT's marketing campaigns have shifted towards enhancing visitor experiences, promoting longer stays, and targeting high-spending tourists. This approach is exemplified by the 'Meaningful Relationships' campaign, which emphasizes cultural engagement and quality tourism experiences. Additionally, Thailand's leadership in promoting 'High Value' and 'Sustainable Tourism' aligns with global trends towards responsible and eco-friendly travel.
However, Thailand faces challenges, including high dependency on the Asia-Pacific region, exposing the market to economic risks within the region. There is also a risk of losing market share in the low-budget holiday sector to neighboring countries like Vietnam, the Philippines, and Cambodia. To mitigate these risks, Thailand is diversifying its source markets and enhancing its competitive advantage through strategic marketing and policy adjustments.